You're overconfident on hiring.
Across 3 hiring calls you averaged 70% confidence, but only 33% turned out well - a 37-point gap.
Reflect
The mirror
Every number is computed from the ledger below. The AI only narrates — it never invents a verdict.
9 resolved · Brier 0.21 (lower is better)
AI agreement
Followed AI100% · n=4
Overrode AI60% · n=5
Overrides by domain
Where your judgment actually adds value — overrides only.
strategy100% · n=3
hiring0% · n=2
Calibration
Stated confidence vs. how things actually went.
50–60%
n=2 · actual 100%
60–70%
n=2 · actual 100%
70–80%
n=3 · actual 33%
80%+
n=2 · actual 100%
Grounded insights
Strategy is where you're strong.
100% of your strategy decisions went well at 79% average confidence.
You do better when you follow the AI.
Followed: 100% good calls (4). Overrode: 60% (5). The domain breakdown matters more than the headline.
Computed from your committed ledger